Post by CardsGM (Mat) on Mar 3, 2019 7:26:55 GMT -5
$330M sound like a lot on the surface, but he's going to be ridiculously underpaid through this deal.
If we can safely assume an average of 3 WAR going forward, at a price of $9M/WAR (which is the rate right now), his overall value is $351M.
That's the LOWEST evaluation. His floor. Because I think it's safe to say most expect him to exceed 3 WAR per season, and WAR values go up continually over time. By the time he finishes his deal, the rate may be $15M/WAR or more.
But that's not even the worst of it.
$330M - taxes and fees adds up to approx $186M. Philadelphia also taxes bonuses, so he loses 2/3 of a million on his $20M signing bonus. He losses another 65K for the 2 weeks he missed of Spring Training.
Then he has to pay Boras Corp approx $16.5M (5%), which leaves him with just $170M.
After that he needs to pay his trainers, nutrition/cook, accountants, financial advisers, lawyer etc....
But just for fun, let's use $170M over 13 years. That's an AAV of $13M in pocket.
That may sound like a lot of money now, but in 5, 6, 7 years, that's not going to be the same value - at all.
To prove how much of a discount he took, let's contrast that to Patrick Corbin.
Corbin signed in DC for $140M/6 yrs or $23.3M/yr. He got a $2.5M signing bonus - non taxable in DC. He'll pay just about $10M in taxes annually, which leaves him with about $13.3M per year.
But it gets better for Patrick, because after 6 yrs, he gets to negotiate a deal at new rates - something Harper can't do.
Not only is Corbin getting paid more than Harper on an AAV basis, but he's going to make WAY more if he stays healthy enough. After all, we just saw many late 30s pitchers sign for $17M per season or more. How much will they be making in 6 yrs?
Unless Mike Trout really does head to Philly, this is a horrible contract for Harper and the MLBPA. Because for Harper, Philly is a horrible place to lose (ask Ryan Howard), and for Philly, if playoff run doesn't happen in next 2 yrs - while Realmuto is there - they could be in a world of hurt.
My 10 cents.
If we can safely assume an average of 3 WAR going forward, at a price of $9M/WAR (which is the rate right now), his overall value is $351M.
That's the LOWEST evaluation. His floor. Because I think it's safe to say most expect him to exceed 3 WAR per season, and WAR values go up continually over time. By the time he finishes his deal, the rate may be $15M/WAR or more.
But that's not even the worst of it.
$330M - taxes and fees adds up to approx $186M. Philadelphia also taxes bonuses, so he loses 2/3 of a million on his $20M signing bonus. He losses another 65K for the 2 weeks he missed of Spring Training.
Then he has to pay Boras Corp approx $16.5M (5%), which leaves him with just $170M.
After that he needs to pay his trainers, nutrition/cook, accountants, financial advisers, lawyer etc....
But just for fun, let's use $170M over 13 years. That's an AAV of $13M in pocket.
That may sound like a lot of money now, but in 5, 6, 7 years, that's not going to be the same value - at all.
To prove how much of a discount he took, let's contrast that to Patrick Corbin.
Corbin signed in DC for $140M/6 yrs or $23.3M/yr. He got a $2.5M signing bonus - non taxable in DC. He'll pay just about $10M in taxes annually, which leaves him with about $13.3M per year.
But it gets better for Patrick, because after 6 yrs, he gets to negotiate a deal at new rates - something Harper can't do.
Not only is Corbin getting paid more than Harper on an AAV basis, but he's going to make WAY more if he stays healthy enough. After all, we just saw many late 30s pitchers sign for $17M per season or more. How much will they be making in 6 yrs?
Unless Mike Trout really does head to Philly, this is a horrible contract for Harper and the MLBPA. Because for Harper, Philly is a horrible place to lose (ask Ryan Howard), and for Philly, if playoff run doesn't happen in next 2 yrs - while Realmuto is there - they could be in a world of hurt.
My 10 cents.
