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Post by Red SoxGM (Brandon) on Jan 6, 2022 19:26:49 GMT -5
The game has changed since the inception of this league. With changes in strategy such as bullpen games and openers, as well as increased player management for injuries, pitchers across the board are pitching less and less innings per outing and in total than when this league was created.
Take a look at the data below on IP/GS (Innings Pitched per Game Started) compiled from baseball reference:
IP/GS
2015: 5.81
2016: 5.65
2017: 5.51
2018: 5.36
2019: 5.18
2020: 4.8
2021: 5.0
To further show how hard it is to find workhorses who rack up innings pitched, look at the data below on the total number of pitchers each season that averaged 6IP/GS or more:
# of Pitchers with 6IP/GS or more
2015: 59
2016: 52
2017: 34
2018: 30
2019: 29
2020: 21
2021: 11
In 2015, every team in the league could theoretically have 3 starters averaging 6 or more IP/GS.
This past season? barely half the teams in the league could even have 1.
The MLB has changed drastically in the last 6 years, and I think it is obvious from this data that we need to make an adjustment.
Some peoples reaction to this will be that there are more reliever innings out there, which is true, the innings didn't disappear, they are just more dispersed among players.
The problem with that is, theres so much volatility in relievers, that people will end up signing and dropping players over and over again if they are chasing innings through mostly relievers.
The other problem is, in the MLB, each team obviously knows who is on their roster and they have those players directly at their disposal.
In a fantasy baseball league we obviously don't have the luxury of picking who pitches when, sometimes you could run into a bad streak where a few of your relievers didn't get out there for 4 days or so and if a few of these instances line up you could end up with a messy week unintentionally.
I suggest we take the following options and vote:
1. Keep at 35IP
2. Lower to 30IP
3. Lower to 25IP
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Post by RaysGM (Paul) on Jan 6, 2022 21:19:05 GMT -5
There are 30 teams in MLB. Each team has 5 SPs on their roster. That comes to 150 SPs. Each team in our league can have 7.5 SPs. If each pitcher averages 5 innings per game, they would have the 35 IP minimum, before any relievers and closers are added in. Dealing with injuries seems to be the main difficulty here. Looking at who takes the place of injured SPs in the MLB can give an indication of who could be picked up on a short term basis.
In 2019, the average IP per starter was 5.18, which was .18 more than the 2021 average of 5.00. That comes to a total of 874.8 innings (162x30x.18). Figuring 24 weeks in the season, that comes to 36.45 average IP per week less. with 20 teams in our league that would be 1.8225 less IP per week for each team. The 35 IP minimum didn't seem to be a problem in 2019. Just saying.
Maybe I am biased or naive since I didn't fail to meet the 35 IP minimum in 2021, but I don't see the need to lower the minimum |
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Post by Red SoxGM (Brandon) on Jan 6, 2022 22:42:56 GMT -5
Yes the average IP/GS didn't change much from 2019 to 2021, but the number of starters averaging over 6IP/GS changed pretty drastically. My guess is this is evidence of more spot starters, meaning there are less guys available that you can rely on to routinely go out and get you significant IP. The other issue is that the starters will never be dispersed evenly among the league. Some teams will have 10 reliable starters meaning there is less available for people who may not be trying to compete.
Maybe this is a result of injuries, and it will revert back to 2019 numbers, maybe not, tough to say.
I personally believe there is enough variability in ERA and WHIP at 30IP or even 25IP for it to solve the problem of allowing people to get cheap wins in those categories, and it allows some more wiggle room for those who may not be competing and are struggling to hit the 35IP mark.
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Post by DodgersGM (Stephen) on Jan 7, 2022 0:00:02 GMT -5
Aside from using last year as a basis point( COVID and short preseason).
I have a ton of arms in my system, Red Sox had TWO. Full disclosure on where we are both coming from here. 2 arms in your system- cause baseball right? More on that later.
How much do we devalue the most important player on the baseball field? Outside of an NFL QB- the most important position in all 4 major sports? How much did Mad Max sign for this off season, and how did Verlander sign for this off season. Elite starters are hard to find- so that makes them more valuable, not less. So let’s devalue the thing that is most precious and difficult to find today.
It is hard to find speed, let’s banish stolen bases too.. Everybody hates 3 out come baseball/ so let’s move towards it here. If baseball adopts the universal DH- it’s only gonna be easier to find hitting. So let’s devalue pitching cause it’s hard to find starting pitchers. Let’s do an emphasis on the RP- the most volatile aspect of pitching year over year.
We wanna do baseball, or Wednesday night beer league softball?
Keep at 35 folks. It’s very low, very easy to reach in 20 man fantasy league that copies a 30 team MLB league. If you can not, beef up the fines.
Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox all had IP issues, and have top 4 draft picks. Pay the damn fine, enjoy the draft pick. Red Sox: 25+ start Anderson sat in his minors all year. Was it a problem, or a decision to save a year of eligibility on Anderson. I had the same decision, and burned a year of Manoah. We each made a choice. You paid $14 million to have a top 4 draft pick. Stop with the nonsense, enjoy the pick, and let’s have an auction.
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Post by Red SoxGM (Brandon) on Jan 7, 2022 8:48:49 GMT -5
The reality is, this is beer league softball, your not Dave Dombrowski, Im not Theo Epstein, Its a fantasy baseball league. We don't have the ability to chose who pitches each night. Those guys have a starter for every game because THEY CHOSE who pitches each night, we don't.
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Post by Red SoxGM (Brandon) on Jan 7, 2022 9:05:41 GMT -5
Also... Its January, and FA hasnt started, peoples rosters arent very full with the offseason moves. I had 11 pitchers in minors/reserve last year, 13 if you include the IL.
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Post by PhilliesGM (Jacob) on Jan 7, 2022 9:10:33 GMT -5
Everyone please continue this on Giants thread so everything is in one place.
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Post by Red SoxGM (Brandon) on Jan 7, 2022 9:14:40 GMT -5
I had ONE offensive bench player to finish the year last year. Almost my entire bench was made up of pitchers.
Michael Wacha
Spenser Watkins
Garrett Whitlock
Emmanuel Clase
John Gant
Kenyan Middleton
Jose Cisnero
Daniel Ponce De Leon
Chris Stratton
Andrew Cashner
Matt Harvey
Wade Leblanc
Jordan Monthomery
Ivan Nova
Zach Plesac
Brandon Morrow
My list of active pitchers...
Its possible for people to be making an effort to fill the IP and not be able to do it, look at all the BUMS I had to roster just to try and get there and still couldn't do it.
Bid on a player, has 2 bad starts, gets sent to minors.
Bid on player, pitches for a few weeks, gets hurt.
In real life, GMs replace these players directly when they leave the active roster, in Fantasy baseball we have to start picking up new people every time this happens, in a contract league that gets messy.
And to be clear. I don't care at all if it changes, I'm competing now and this wont be an issue again for me for a long time. Im just arguing on behalf of people who may be going into a rebuild.
The 4 teams this affected most are 1-4 in the draft, so this is obviously only an issue for rebuilding teams.
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